Posted on February 17th, 2012 in
Article
William D. Dar
Director General, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Article for the Times Disaster Management; January 2012 issue.

Several crises confront agriculture today, and their confluence, if unabated, will lead to a ‘perfect storm’ triggering a global disaster of unprecedented proportions. Warming temperatures, droughts, floods, increasing land degradation, rising food prices, zooming energy demand and population explosion are creating extreme challenges to feed the world.
A rising perfect storm
Climate change is real and the world is experiencing related impacts in terms of warmer temperatures for longer periods, prolonged drought and widespread floods. The effects of climate change are going to be borne by all, most especially the poorest of the poor. In the drylands, the impact of climate change on rainfall pattern is not going to be temporary but is likely to be the rule rather than the exception.
In terms of drought, the year 2011 has seen the worst in six decades inflicting untold suffering to 12 million people in the Horn Of Africa covering Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda. Hundreds of thousands of people have left their homes, with famine conditions lasting until December. In 2009, Niger was wracked by a severe drought that slashed grain production, bringing hunger to over 7 million people (more than half of the country’s population). In India, the World Bank predicts the possibility of declining yields of major dryland crops in Andhra Pradesh together with the dropping of rice production in Orissa’s flood-prone coastal regions by 12 percent due to climate change.
On the other hand, Thailand’s worst flooding in 50 years has reduced the country’s rice harvest by over 10 percent, while the inundation cut the yields in Cambodia by 12 percent, in Laos by 7.5 percent, and in the Philippines by 6 percent. The reduced harvest of these countries and controlled rice exports by China and India have resulted in supply shortages which made food prices soar in the world market. This is compounded by the skyrocketing energy demand by emerging economies, reducing land area for food production in place for biofuels.
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